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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Individual Freedom & Ownership for All

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Individual Freedom & Ownership for All
A comment article in The Times last Friday was headed, 'Starmer and Reeves must change to survive' — but which way? The backbench Labour MP uprising called for even more State spending, but the bond market and the July 22nd ‘Cost of Government Day’ say no — the public sector is already much too big. Of more concern is their preference to go for the 'stick' of welfare reduction rather than the 'carrot' of empowerment through individual ownership and freedom for all, drawing a sharp contrast between this Labour Government and that of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown two decades ago. Background music: 'Hopeful Freedom' by Asher Fulero Image: happier days, from Wikimedia
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Has the rush for economic stimulation obscured joined-up thinking?

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Has the rush for economic stimulation obscured joined-up thinking?
The Chancellor was like a person sitting on the cliff-edge of colossal public debt last week, convinced that her massive 'investment' commitments can overlook the void below. It appears that economic stimulation is the only game in town for the British economy, and even that seems to avoid joined-up thinking in some key areas. Background music: 'Ether Oar' by The Whole Other
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Bearing down on Spending

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Bearing down on Spending
On 11th June UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents her Spending Review against the backdrop of a gargantuan public debt liability which is costing the UK taxpayer £111 billion a year in interest. Further tax rises have been ruled out, so she needs to identify achievable, structural reductions in spending. Elon Musk thought he'd done just that as head of the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), but only a small fraction of his planned reductions were achieved. In the UK at least we can break away from welfare universality — but will she do it? She's tried taxation and now she has to tackle spending, but the real elephant in the room is debt: all £2.7 trillion of it. Background music: 'Dark Alley Deals' by Aaron Kenny
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Everything, Everywhere — All At Once

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Everything, Everywhere — All At Once
Donald Trump may think he's a deal-maker, but he's more likely to turn out to be an economy-breaker, putting the U.S. dollar's role as the world's reserve currency at risk. Recession may be the least of our worries — this degree of instant aggression could well bring on a second Great Depression. So while few would disagree that U.S. needs to find a way out of its chronic trade imbalances, a transitional approach to tariffs with cross-party agreement designed to run over at least 2-3 presidential terms — thereby giving time to make the necessary changes — would have made far more sense. Background music: 'When Johnny Comes Marching Home' Cooper Cannell
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Why ‘Non-Experimental Evaluation’ Matters

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Why ‘Non-Experimental Evaluation’ Matters
Outcome assessment is vital for all new initiatives, particularly political, but traditional academic research, which is sequential in character, is not good at responding to the speed of change in our modern world. This is particularly the case in tackling Child Poverty, for which a UK-Government Task Force is due to report later this Spring. If we are to break the cycle of deprivation with inter-generational rebalancing, we need a new sense of dynamism and responsiveness. Background music: 'Peony Morning' by TrackTribe
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: End of the Road for Universality

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: End of the Road for Universality
When Clement Attlee introduced welfare universality to post-war Britain, he was aiming for a more egalitarian society. Seventy-five years on we can see not only that it has not been achieved, but also that it has nearly bankrupted the public finances: a major task for UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves to tackle in her Spring Statement. Targeting support for those most in need with the help of philanthropy will be a key part of replacing 'egalitarian socialism' with egalitarian capitalism, enabling those with a social conscience to concentrate support and encouragement where it's needed, rather than providing publicly-funded services 'free at the point of use' for everyone. Background music: 'Everything Has a Beginning' by Joel Cummins Image source: Wikipedia
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: BRICS in the Ascendancy

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: BRICS in the Ascendancy
As the United States descends towards economic turmoil as a result of its new-found isolationism and unreliability, the BRICS group of nations (including Russia and China) will be looking forward to a new dawn for their mainly autocratic regimes and potentially an opportunity to replace the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. If western democracies, particularly in Europe, are to turn that tide, they must discover long-term governance, a new approach to targeted welfare working in partnership with philanthropists as opposed to universality, and a significant increase in democratic legitimacy for global governance. Background music: 'India Fuse' by French Fuse
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Calling for Tech Philanthropy

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Calling for Tech Philanthropy
Sam Altman, the tech entrepreneur who built OpenAI and its ground-breaking ChatGPT Artificial Intelligence functionality, correctly says that increasing equality may require new ideas. He's right: governments and political ideologies of many hues just can't deliver, besieged by conflicts of interest and debt. The Credit Suisse Wealth Distribution chart shows the huge contrast between those who are super-rich (in blue), the wealthiest of whom are the giant tech oligarchs, and those who live in real poverty, in red. It's time we accepted that 'The State', whether socialist or populist, can't deliver, and for philanthropists to step up to the plate, working in partnership with governments who still need to provide the necessary regulation and logistics. Background music: 'Resolution' by Wayne Jones Image source: Wikipedia
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: The Consequences of Currency Manipulation

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: The Consequences of Currency Manipulation
Whatever you may think of trade tariffs, there is no doubting the massive trade imbalance that has developed between China and the United States over the past three decades. Deliberate currency manipulation has enabled China to become the world's factory through resisting any meaningful appreciation of the Renminbi against the U.S. dollar. Parts of Europe have also suffered much economic damage as a result of the failure to balance out regional economic differences. If strong, accommodating economic control cannot be delivered, freely-floating currencies are the answer — but not tariffs. Background music: 'Something Is Wrong' by Sir Cubworth
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: How tech could lift the debt straitjacket

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: How tech could lift the debt straitjacket
Both the Office for Budget Responsibility and Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, have warned of serious consequences for public finances if significant action isn't taken. The assumption is that this must be achieved by lifting growth in productivity. But what if the main impediment to traditional economic growth, as evidenced by GDP, is endemic demonetization brought about by advancing technology and automation? Is it time to look for a radically new approach which will allow everyone to participate in that wealth creation? Background music: 'The New Order' by Aaron Kenny
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